Forecasting of U.S. Total Textiles and Apparel Export to the World in Next 10 Years (2015-2025)

Jinzhao Lu

Abstract


Global textile and apparel value chain is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5% per year and reach US $2,100 bn by 2025. Increased by 8 percent, world exports of textiles and apparel in 2013 reach 766 billion dollars, which is four times higher than the average growth (2 percent) for world exports. Vietnam overtook United States and became the sixth-largest exports of textiles and apparel. However, the Free Trade Agreement greatly supports the U.S. textile and apparel industry, and is expected to impact American employment in this sector since its labor-intensive nature. Based on historical data (1989-2014), this paper will perform a forecasting of U.S. total textiles and apparel export to the world for next 10 years (2015-2025) with two forecasting models: regression model and ARIMA model. The forecasting is then adjusted by taking into account of the trend and authors’ future expectations.

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