Analysis of Hardwood Lumber Grade Yields Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Henry Quesada, Sailesh Adhikari, Brian Bond, Shawn T. Grushecky

Abstract


The goal of this study was to develop a lumber grade yield prediction model with a probability-based technique known as the Monte Carlo simulation. The data to develop the prediction model was taken from an existing lumber grade yield database developed from red oak logs sawn at the Appalachian region of the United States. Statistical input analysis techniques were used to fit the lumber grade yields to hypothesized probability distributions. Inverse cumulative probability function distributions were developed from the fitted probability distributions to simulate and predict lumber grade yields. The predicted gross revenue was compared with the actual gross revenue and against the gross revenue predicted by a multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The predicted gross revenue using the Monte Carlo simulation had a 0.88% absolute error compared with the actual gross revenue, while the predicted gross revenue from the MLR model had an absolute error of 3.31%. The higher prediction power of the Monte Carlo method was more effective when predicting lumber grade yields from individual log groups. The Monte Carlo model developed in this research can be easily implemented to quickly predict lumber grade yields or gross revenue to support procurement, log inventory management, production, planning, and marketing operations.

Keywords


Log yield study; Monte Carlo simulation; Multiple linear regression; Probability-based model; Hardwood log yield

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Welcome to BioResources! This online, peer-reviewed journal is devoted to the science and engineering of biomaterials and chemicals from lignocellulosic sources for new end uses and new capabilities. The editors of BioResources would be very happy to assist you during the process of submitting or reviewing articles. Please note that logging in is required in order to submit or review articles. Martin A. Hubbe, (919) 513-3022, hubbe@ncsu.edu; Lucian A. Lucia, (919) 515-7707, lucia-bioresources@ncsu.edu URLs: bioresourcesjournal.com; http://ncsu.edu/bioresources ISSN: 1930-2126