An Empirical Model for the Raw Wood Assortment Price Predicting – Case Study in Slovakia

Miloš Gejdoš, Marek Trenčiansky, Blanka Giertliová, Martin Lieskovský, Zuzana Danihelová

Abstract


Sales of timber, which represent the main source of forest management income, are essential for the economic welfare of forest businesses. Planning the timber sale management faces a certain amount of uncertainty and risk in such difficult conditions of climate change. Model scenarios make preparation for potential future development possible. The aim of the study was to create a prediction model of coniferous and non-coniferous sawlogs for the area of the Central Europe. The objective of the model was to estimate the variations in the price of coniferous or non-coniferous sawlogs following a linear regression equation in the analysed time series from 2001 to 2017. The price of coniferous sawlogs was significantly affected in a negative way by the amount of incidental fellings and in a positive way by the Gross Domestic Product. The price of the non-coniferous sawlogs was significantly affected in a positive way by the GDP and the volume of non-coniferous sawlog export. These factors caused a non-elastic response of the coniferous sawlog price. The impact of these factors depends to a great extent on the wood species composition of the forests in the Slovak Republic. The model also can be set for conditions of other countries when considering their economic indicators.

Keywords


Raw wood assortments; Timber prices; Prediction; Timber market; Incidental felling

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